Exploring the evolution characteristics and development trends of low-carbon technologies in coal-fired power is conducive to promoting the adoption of low-carbon technologies by coal-fired power enterprises and facilitating the formation of new quality productivity in the coal-fired power industry. In this paper, a novel technology evolution forecast framework based on three-layer text mining is proposed. Utilizing the data of scientific papers and patent texts from 2000-2023, the evolution characteristics and development status of low-carbon coal power technology system are analyzed from three dimensions: technological positioning, evolution pathway and content trend. The results show that there are differences in the evolution trend of different categories of low-carbon technologies, with carbon control and system coupling technologies emerging as the core areas for future development. The correlation between different categories often leads to their similar development trends, such as fuel and combustion technologies, carbon control and system coupling technologies. Evolution characterized by incremental technological innovation will gradually lose vitality in the later stages of technological development, reducing the emergence frequency of emerging technologies, as observed in combustion technology. On this basis, according to the analysis results of technology evolution, the development of low-carbon technology system of coal power in the next time window (2024-2028) is systematically forecasted.
 

Evolution analysis; Technology forecasting; Text mining; Low-carbon technology; Coal-fired power